Close to home!
I have worked in non teaching roles in secondary eduation and currently with in a non teaching role in the TAFE Sector (Health & Safety).
Agree with your basic assumptions, however, many year 9 - 12 students dont have a clue what they want to do when they leave school, no matter how much careers councelling they get.
The Victorian sector offers a non VCE pathway for those that dont want to go to uni. Students can undertake a variety of Vocationally directed courses and gain experience in real jobs with real employers.
The traditional trades areas are well catered for. We have two major Technical Education Centres, linked in with major high schools. Students can undertake TAFE testers courses to gain an initial understanding of these trades. Many do these, and then link in with Job providers to gain apprenticeships. This approach works well in major centres with a critical mass. Many smaller communities (say 2 to 6 thousand persons) miss out on this approach tho, our TEC's are in cities of 20,000 plus persons.
Our TEC's also offer hospitality and Hairdressing. Not a great range of choices for females.
We currently have 2 major commercial kitchens in smaller campuses sitting unused to to lack of numbers!
We also offer Rural Industries Training, Dairy Education, Equine Education, Vetrinary Courses on two major campuses. Apprenticeships are less common in these areas now, it is a specialist area. Same for Nursing, Business Studies and Allied Health Care, which we also offer. Not really a school based option. You need a Cert 4 Minimum, or a Diploma/Degree. These are not short term courses suitable for years 10-11.
The pathways are there, the specialist support networks are there. At the moment tho, fragementation of the training system by way of private providers "cherry picking" and delivering courses is decreasing our ability to gain critical mass. As allways, rural students will find it harder to do a course that they want.
The end aim should be to give all students that leave high school (at whatever age) either a relevant qualification (VCE/HSC) that they can use for further education or a secure Vocational Pathway. I reckon that in most cases this does happen. Whether that qualification actually sits where the person wants to go in another 12 months or three years is the big issue.
A student leaving school now will have three or four different careers, it is very hard to plan for future changes in educational preferences before the event.
And now the Victorian Government rips another 300 million out of the TAFE Sector, on top of the 400m last year. Classes that used to run with say 10 students will not run anymore, no critical mass. 16 will be the minumum. Many of our current hospitality and business studies courses in large campuses dont meet these numbers. Students wold rather do a degree at a Uni in Melbourne. Our specialist Koori Education and Migrant Education Courses will probably dissapear. Our stafing level of 450 FTE will drop. Another 50 or 60 unemployed - probably mainly sessionals or part timers, but I reckon many Full timers will go also. No options in the Kimberly for them, and fewer options for year 10-11 students.
I worry about it.