Author Topic: NSW Fires  (Read 121913 times)

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Offline Pete79

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NSW Fires
« Reply #675 on: January 11, 2020, 08:06:30 AM »
Impressive footage from NASA shows the smoke from these fires reaching the stratosphere over Chile.

https://youtu.be/_anHG8awnUg

And this article from a (real) scientist covers a lot of interesting points to consider about the possible impacts that fires of this scale can have on the global weather patterns.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/marshallshepherd/2020/01/05/how-fires-in-australia-could-alter-weather-elsewhere-too/#32efeb35e2c8

I found this section especially interesting;
“Another potential and far-reaching impact is related to the Pyrocumulonimbus clouds that I mentioned earlier. A 2019 study published in the journal Geophysical Research Letters found that the smoke plumes from towering smoke-laden clouds can penetrate into the stratosphere. Using the 2017 fires in the Pacific Northwest, they found from modeling studies that the smoke aerosols can linger in the stratosphere up to 5 months and actually create net warming at the top of atmosphere. Smoke contains soot, an effective of absorber of solar radiation. This is counter to the temporary cooling effect that large volcanic eruptions can have on the climate system. Volcanic aerosols injected into the stratosphere tend to be more sulfate-based, which are more effective scatterers of solar energy.”

So we have smoke from our bush fires reaching the stratosphere above Chile. We now know that smoke in the stratosphere can have a net warming effect.

And for the last piece of the puzzle.
Many (real) scientists flagged mid last year that stratospheric warming above Antarctica would cause Australia to have an extremely hot summer, peaking in January 2020.

This article from September last year sums it up pretty clearly;
http://theconversation.com/the-air-above-antarctica-is-suddenly-getting-warmer-heres-what-it-means-for-australia-123080

Specifically this section;
“What can Australia expect?

Impacts from this stratospheric warming are likely to reach Earth’s surface in the next month and possibly extend through to January.

Apart from warming the Antarctic region, the most notable effect will be a shift of the Southern Ocean westerly winds towards the Equator.

For regions directly in the path of the strongest westerlies, which includes western Tasmania, New Zealand’s South Island, and Patagonia in South America, this generally results in more storminess and rainfall, and colder temperatures.

But for subtropical Australia, which largely sits north of the main belt of westerlies, the shift results in reduced rainfall, clearer skies, and warmer temperatures.

Past stratospheric warming events and associated wind changes have had their strongest effects in NSW and southern Queensland, where springtime temperatures increased, rainfall decreased and heatwaves and fire risk rose.”

And now we’ve come full circle.
Stratospheric warming over Antarctica helped cause Australia to heat up and dry out more then usual.
This hotter dryer weather caused bigger bush fires then usual.
The smoke from these bigger then usual fires has now reached the stratosphere and started warming the air above the Andes.

Will be very interesting to see what the global flow on affects of this smoke from our fires will have in the near future.
« Last Edit: January 11, 2020, 08:13:37 AM by Pete79 »
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Offline alnjan

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Re: NSW Fires
« Reply #676 on: January 11, 2020, 09:40:14 AM »
and from the BOM

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/current/annual/aus/

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Offline Fizzie

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Re: NSW Fires
« Reply #677 on: January 12, 2020, 02:06:10 PM »
Comment I just saw regarding the fires in NNSW

"Significant praise needs to be given to the 1000s of hours that have been given by the NSW Rural Fire Service Brigades, FRNSW, NPWS crews, Forestry Corp, QRFS, VIC CFA,VIC MFB, Parks and Forestry Victoria, SA CFS, SA MFB, SA Parks, SA Forestry, WA FRS, WA RFS, NZ FRS, NZ RFS, Canadian Fire Incident Management teams from British Columbia, Alberta, Ontario, Yukon and Saskatchewan provinces, NSW Police, SES, VRA, Marine Rescue, Australian Army, NSW Ambulance, Local Councils and staff, Heavy plant and operators, aircrew and operators and the many many other community groups and services who have all come together in combating what has been unprecedented fire activity never before seen in the Northern Rivers."

Did somebody say nobody was helping us out? :-)
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Offline shakey55

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NSW Fires
« Reply #678 on: January 13, 2020, 05:05:50 AM »
@Fizzie - I second that


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Offline Fizzie

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Re: NSW Fires
« Reply #679 on: January 13, 2020, 03:36:02 PM »
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Offline Fizzie

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Re: NSW Fires
« Reply #680 on: January 15, 2020, 01:35:04 PM »
Just saw reference to this poor little beastie :'(

https://www.sciencealert.com/this-echidna-got-its-spikes-burnt-off-in-a-bushfire-and-we-can-t-stop-staring

But they reckon it's quite alright & that the spines will actually eventually grow back! :D
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Offline Bird

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Re: NSW Fires
« Reply #681 on: January 15, 2020, 03:41:15 PM »
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Offline edz

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Re: NSW Fires
« Reply #682 on: January 15, 2020, 07:55:22 PM »
 ;D Who would have guessed the air quality would have been so hazardous in India and china
« Last Edit: January 15, 2020, 07:58:43 PM by edz »
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Offline Pete79

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Re: NSW Fires
« Reply #683 on: January 15, 2020, 10:43:03 PM »
;D Who would have guessed the air quality would have been so hazardous in India and china
And who would have thought that in that image there is only 3 sites in all of China and India that have a higher pollution level then currently recorded in Melbourne today. :P ;D

Offline Bigfish

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Re: NSW Fires
« Reply #684 on: January 16, 2020, 07:45:45 AM »
Good article confirming what most of us know...A Royal Commission is a huge waste of money, resouces and time...we know what needs doing but govts wont act!!

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-01-16/we-do-not-need-bushfire-royal-commission-this-is-why/11870824
Having lots of friends on farcebook is the same as having lots of money in monopoly...means absolutely nothing!!

Offline edz

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Re: NSW Fires
« Reply #685 on: January 16, 2020, 07:57:07 AM »
Now now Pete, thinking China / India have fairly steady track record of bad to extreme bad air quality for many many decades ..snap shot from 2015 shows Australia well and truly in the green ..  ;D
Fast forwards to when someone / thing  dropped a match and started  an Oz wide  BBQ,    weve now got a few tempory spots thats pretty bad ..



Good p*ss n a fart and a bit more Polly talk will blow that away and return us back to the green pretty much till the next rerun  ;D :P
« Last Edit: January 16, 2020, 08:05:21 AM by edz »
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Offline alnjan

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Re: NSW Fires
« Reply #686 on: January 16, 2020, 10:49:07 AM »
Good article confirming what most of us know...A Royal Commission is a huge waste of money, resouces and time...we know what needs doing but govts wont act!!

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-01-16/we-do-not-need-bushfire-royal-commission-this-is-why/11870824

Guess this will be the first time Climate Change will be seriously raised.  Those areas set aside for Carbon Credits where any form of Hazard Reduction is seen as a Carbon Debit and therefore remain untouched.   

There should be built in penalties where recommendations coming from Royal Commissions are not implemented without justifiable reasons.  A lot of what will come out of the Bushfires will already have been covered in previous Royal Commissions.   Victoria is a classic example.  From previous Royal Commissions they have a set minimum Hazard Reduction of 5%, which some experts believe should be 10 to 15% depending on location, but the State continues to do about 1%.   Action should be taken for the States gross neglect. 

Others with State control over what the landowner can or more the case can not do to make their own property safe from bushfire.  A lot to be looked at.
Cheers

Al and/or Jan

Offline rockrat

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Re: NSW Fires
« Reply #687 on: January 16, 2020, 12:34:20 PM »
Guess this will be the first time Climate Change will be seriously raised.  Those areas set aside for Carbon Credits where any form of Hazard Reduction is seen as a Carbon Debit and therefore remain untouched.   

There should be built in penalties where recommendations coming from Royal Commissions are not implemented without justifiable reasons.  A lot of what will come out of the Bushfires will already have been covered in previous Royal Commissions.   Victoria is a classic example.  From previous Royal Commissions they have a set minimum Hazard Reduction of 5%, which some experts believe should be 10 to 15% depending on location, but the State continues to do about 1%.   Action should be taken for the States gross neglect. 

Others with State control over what the landowner can or more the case can not do to make their own property safe from bushfire.  A lot to be looked at.
I really do hope that climate change is considered. It really is time for a mature conversation and hopefully a royal commission can help facilitate that. It would be a smart move by the Libs to let it happen too - it may give them a great excuse to pivot their policies ahead of the next election. It is clear they are already starting to shift and they need to. And not just because of the bushfires. I work, and have always worked, in mining and metals and believe we should continue to mine and export our minerals, including coal, well into the future. But that also shouldn’t stop us talking steps to lesson our impact on the environment in an economically sustainable way.


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Offline Fizzie

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Re: NSW Fires
« Reply #688 on: January 16, 2020, 03:38:30 PM »
Hmmm ???

"Some of the recommendations of the Stretton Royal Commission following the Black Friday fires of 1939 have still not been fully implemented."

But you can't rush these things, can you ??? ::)
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Offline alnjan

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Re: NSW Fires
« Reply #689 on: January 16, 2020, 06:43:57 PM »
I really do hope that climate change is considered. It really is time for a mature conversation and hopefully a royal commission can help facilitate that. It would be a smart move by the Libs to let it happen too - it may give them a great excuse to pivot their policies ahead of the next election. It is clear they are already starting to shift and they need to. And not just because of the bushfires. I work, and have always worked, in mining and metals and believe we should continue to mine and export our minerals, including coal, well into the future. But that also shouldn’t stop us talking steps to lesson our impact on the environment in an economically sustainable way.


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By all means include it.  My concern is while the science says now it is unknown just how much or how little, Climate Change has added, to the affects of the Drought over the past few years and other weather events that created the catastrophic fire weather conditions, the focus has to be on all aspects impact on the bushfire and all aspect the bushfire impacted on.   
Cheers

Al and/or Jan

Offline Rodt

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Re: NSW Fires
« Reply #690 on: January 17, 2020, 06:54:04 AM »
By all means include it.  My concern is while the science says now it is unknown just how much or how little, Climate Change has added, to the affects of the Drought over the past few years and other weather events that created the catastrophic fire weather conditions, the focus has to be on all aspects impact on the bushfire and all aspect the bushfire impacted on.

Agree. I am worried that every conversation that includes climate change results in it taking over the conversation and then people walk (or run) away from the real issue.

Offline alnjan

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Re: NSW Fires
« Reply #691 on: January 17, 2020, 07:10:35 AM »
Good article confirming what most of us know...A Royal Commission is a huge waste of money, resouces and time...we know what needs doing but govts wont act!!

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-01-16/we-do-not-need-bushfire-royal-commission-this-is-why/11870824

Last night saw the same article which included a little bit about the author and who funds him.  Hmmm easy to see why he wrote the cash for comment piece.   
Cheers

Al and/or Jan
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Offline Champin

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Re: NSW Fires
« Reply #692 on: January 23, 2020, 12:42:23 PM »
Very interesting interview. I'm technologically challenged so I have no clue how to post it, but if you search " Craig Kelly _ Australian bush fires -- the real experts" you'll get it. It's on Facebook.
Now while I admit you'll find an " expert" under every rock, these gents talk about what I have been thinking for a long time.

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Offline edz

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« Last Edit: January 23, 2020, 12:48:41 PM by edz »
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Offline Bird

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« Last Edit: January 23, 2020, 03:00:32 PM by Bird »
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Offline edz

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Re: NSW Fires
« Reply #695 on: January 23, 2020, 03:03:49 PM »
Hope they were able to put it down and get out of it .. Instead of the likes of this happening https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PExzHamjqHE .
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Offline Robbo

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Re: NSW Fires
« Reply #696 on: January 23, 2020, 03:08:06 PM »
Tragic news. Can only hope and pray that all crew have survived.

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Offline Bird

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Re: NSW Fires
« Reply #697 on: January 23, 2020, 03:30:46 PM »
Hope they were able to put it down and get out of it .

4.28
Confirmation that the C-130 has crashed

ACT Emergency Services has confirmed a C130 water tanker plane has crashed while battling a blaze in southern NSW, it is unknown how many were on board.
There are initial reports that the wreckage of the C-130 Hercules plane which was feared to have crashed near Cooma, north-east of the Snowy Mountains, has been found.
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Offline Marcus73

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Re: NSW Fires
« Reply #698 on: January 23, 2020, 03:53:15 PM »


Sad news


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Offline edz

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Re: NSW Fires
« Reply #699 on: January 23, 2020, 04:48:11 PM »
America lost  three of its sons to help  Australia today.   R.I.P.   
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