Is Australia in a Recession!!!

[Tassie devils]

Hi fellow Swaggers
We keep hearing that the Australian economy is in good shape, one reason we left Tassie and moved back to south Australia was because work dried up in Tassie and when I mean dried up it was like someone flicked a switch and turned the work off.
I am a Carpenter and licenced builder with 25 years behind me and have never been this quite. Just interested to see if anyone else is struggling to find work or sales down around Australia.

[D4D]

Lots of people with hands in their pockets waiting to see how Joolias carbon tax that she said would never happen hits.

[Swannie]

Hey Tassie devil.. Tasmania is particulary quite at the moment. I run business which has stores in both Hobart & Launcestion which involves the building and construction trade.  I've actually budgeted both sites to post a negative result for the rest of 2012. No matter how much we have advertised etc it just isnt there at the moment.

Cheers
Greg

PS that means if you are quite... when I'm in Tassie next must go to pub for beer, my shout!
Greg

[Disco4Guy]

Lots of people with hands in their pockets waiting to see how Joolias carbon tax that she said would never happen hits.

Remember... it's not a "Carbon tax" it's a "Carbon Price".  You gotta love how they avoid the 'T' word!!!

[Mandrake]

As I'm a green energy vendor - does that mean I get a Carbon Tax Price rebate ??

[rotare]

I'm in residential construction too (S.A), and it's been pretty quiet for the last 18 months.  Plenty of people are wanting to build, but the banks are much stricter now on what they will lend - not as generous so to speak.  Factor in it's harder to sell homes at the moment in some areas, and a quick sale means dropping your "ideal" sale price, significantly, resulting in people shelving the idea of building new in the hope things will get better in the future.  Reno's and extensions are up, but not by huge amounts.  I know of a couple of housing developments that are on hold at the moment simply because the developer won't make any money on it, based on the current $/sqm that houses are being sold for in the area.  It will eventually go ahead, but not in the next 12 months, unless the market improves.  My short experience in the construction industry leads me to believe it's a "boom & bust" industry anyway, with it being frantic for a cople of years and more work that you can cope with, then back to a year of two scratching around for work, and everyone undercutting each other.  I'm hoping we're not too far away from it picking up again.

It's probably different in different areas and different states.

There is money out there though, but with all the constant negativity about what's happening to the cost of living in Australia and the global uncertainties with future, people are scared to spend their money and are sitting tight and paying off their current debts instead.  I went to a seminar a couple of weeks ago and I'm pretty sure the speaker stated that people in Australia are saving more money & paying off their current debts at a greater rate than at any other time in our history (or something along those lines).

In some ways I view it a bit like a self fulfilling prophency - It's not really as bad as it seems, but the more negativity we hear, the less inclined we are to spend our money.

[craigtempo]

heaps of buisnesses strugleing or closeing down .... heaps out of work ... ide say if it wasnt for the coal exports wede but F#$%&D.

craig

[BigJules]

I don't think we're in a recession, but people are being very careful with their spending that is certain. Australia has a strong economy, interest rates are low and employment is high, BUT, the populace feels uncertain. The federal opposition have done a great job of talking doom andf gloom, and the Government has done a lousy job of rebutting that or creating a sense of optimism.

On the carbon tax, I don't know one way or the other if is good or not, but the commentators I read and trust, like Ross Gittins economics editor for the SMH, say it is OK. I hear lots of people talking about the tax, but rarely does any individual mention the tax rebates we will all get to compensate for an increase in energy prices.

[Black Diamond]

Its certainly not getting any easier i tell ya .......

BD

[fuji]

I don't think we're in a recession, but people are being very careful with their spending that is certain. Australia has a strong economy, interest rates are low and employment is high, BUT, the populace feels uncertain. The federal opposition have done a great job of talking doom andf gloom, and the Government has done a lousy job of rebutting that or creating a sense of optimism.

On the carbon tax, I don't know one way or the other if is good or not, but the commentators I read and trust, like Ross Gittins economics editor for the SMH, say it is OK. I hear lots of people talking about the tax, but rarely does any individual mention the tax rebates we will all get to compensate for an increase in energy prices.

We have been told we are in the well to do class so we don't get a tax rebate. Two coppers wages and we're rich? What a joke. But never mind live life to the fullest, no point complaining

[Sharshebelle1]

I don't think we're in a recession, but people are being very careful with their spending that is certain. Australia has a strong economy, interest rates are low and employment is high, BUT, the populace feels uncertain. The federal opposition have done a great job of talking doom andf gloom, and the Government has done a lousy job of rebutting that or creating a sense of optimism.

On the carbon tax, I don't know one way or the other if is good or not, but the commentators I read and trust, like Ross Gittins economics editor for the SMH, say it is OK. I hear lots of people talking about the tax, but rarely does any individual mention the tax rebates we will all get to compensate for an increase in energy prices.

Thats because a lot of us dont get any compensation,  in fact Im much worse off. The thing that gets me most is that Im already very environmentally aware. Ive gotten the insulation,  solar power,  I dont have an air conditioner,  Im careful with water, I take public transport to and from work, and yet,  because the government have deemed me "rich" I have to pay and none of my efforts are taken into account. I should get credits for my low carbon footprint. I can assure you if I was rich, I wouldn't be driving a Pathfinder and a 1992 Mitsubishi Lancer.

[Bird]

but rarely does any individual mention the tax rebates we will all get to compensate for an increase in energy prices.

thats cause they are not worth a pinch of Shit.

[crackacoldie]

We have been told we are in the well to do class so we don't get a tax rebate. Two coppers wages and we're rich? What a joke. But never mind live life to the fullest, no point complaining

Not a copper, but a single income family and we too, are considered the top end of town.  Not sure how that works???

[onallfour]

We are one of the most overtaxed countries in the world and it is getting worse. Carbon TAX is the latest grab. Any handouts that get given to anyone will come from tax payers and it is us anyways. More and more manufacturing is closing down and going overseas too. We pay more for electricity than most countries and the coal comes from here (countries buying our coal get cheaper power than we do)What is left to do for us to do but shut up and keep getting ripped off by greedy corporations and useless governments

[Tassie devils]

Hey Tassie devil.. Tasmania is particularly quite at the moment. I run business which has stores in both Hobart & Launcestion which involves the building and construction trade.  I've actually budgeted both sites to post a negative result for the rest of 2012. No matter how much we have advertised etc it just isnt there at the moment.

Cheers
Greg

PS that means if you are quite... when I'm in Tassie next must go to pub for beer, my shout!
Greg

Thanks for the offer for a beer but unless your visiting south Australia, Tassie is a long day trip from here,
As for construction work in Tasmania my phone has not rung for a single job from Tasmania in 6 months the other guy I worked with, took on my workshop making staircases but has no work at all and has made contact with heaps of builders and architects with no luck.

[Nomad]

Taxes...........
Lack of finance..........
Lack of confidence...........
Out of control infrastructure charges......for both commercial and residential construction are all playing a major part in the real estate downturn.

What generally happens in a market like this is essentially a retraction of available funds in to the major cities......with QLD and WA being the exception because of mining and gas. But holiday homes and non essential "investments" do tend to get sold off as well.

Then those major city markets have to capitalize again and begin the spread back out through the whole market.

When this starts to happen, as I am seeing on the Sunshine Coast in the residential market anyway, although early days, is that prices for established homes etc start to rise again until they get to a price point where developers or more importantly their bankers deem the risk / demand profile is acceptable enough to develop more land. They then bring that land to market and prices start to even out as people decide on new homes on new land / or older homes on older land, but often in a better position.

This is also the reason there is more renovation work rather than selling and buying.....with the costs (including time) to sell and buy, stamp duty etc, it is a much more palatable decision if you are able to sort your requirements by this method.

If you want to know where you area is in the property cycle to better gauge your actual position in the market it is best to talk to your (reliable) local agent or read market reviews written buy good quality real estate information providers such as HTW valuers or the like.

We will get through this crappy market and back to more normal cycles.........

Cheers Nomad.

[Tassie devils]

Taxes...........
Lack of finance..........
Lack of confidence...........
Out of control infrastructure charges......for both commercial and residential construction are all playing a major part in the real estate downturn.

What generally happens in a market like this is essentially a retraction of available funds in to the major cities......with QLD and WA being the exception because of mining and gas. But holiday homes and non essential "investments" do tend to get sold off as well.

Then those major city markets have to capitalize again and begin the spread back out through the whole market.

When this starts to happen, as I am seeing on the Sunshine Coast in the residential market anyway, although early days, is that prices for established homes etc start to rise again until they get to a price point where developers or more importantly their bankers deem the risk / demand profile is acceptable enough to develop more land. They then bring that land to market and prices start to even out as people decide on new homes on new land / or older homes on older land, but often in a better position.

This is also the reason there is more renovation work rather than selling and buying.....with the costs (including time) to sell and buy, stamp duty etc, it is a much more palatable decision if you are able to sort your requirements by this method.

If you want to know where you area is in the property cycle to better gauge your actual position in the market it is best to talk to your (reliable) local agent or read market reviews written buy good quality real estate information providers such as HTW valuers or the like.

We will get through this crappy market and back to more normal cycles.........

Cheers Nomad.

Makes sence let's hope things pick up soon or I might have to sell the camper.

[Chippy76]

Mate, I run my own carpentry business in country QLD and have so for the last 4 years .....  I know what you mean about "someone has flicked the switch" I am so quiet it is not funny, in fact the decision has been made to wrap up the business, and find another job. Not a decision that has been made lightly, as I LOVE my job. But if the work isnt there , the bills dont get paid.

I honestly think that certain residents in Canberra live in there own insulated warm fuzzy world, and dont realise how the "common man" is doing it.

Cheers Chippy

[Tassie devils]

Hi chippy
I have been self employed for 12 years and also have started looking and applying for other jobs,still within the construction industry but you no what not even getting a reply to my resume.
A friend of mine is a supervisor for a local construction company, they advertised for a carpenter and got 45 resumes now that's a lot of carpenters looking for work.

[Jasman]

Technically speaking we are not in a recession but we are slowing (hence the rate drops), looking at the raw data though the economy is still in reasonable knick comparatively speaking.  However, what's hurting many of us is that wealth has moved to the mining sector and the people with the money (and everyone else for that matter) have no confidence in the economy and have stopped spending and started saving again.  For you poor buggers posting up above this means people stop buying non-essentials like new homes etc, unfortunately this won't change until people get some confidence back and probably all or some of the following will need to happen:

- more strength in global economy, in particular the Euro
- a strong Australian Goverment with a clear mandate to lead and clever fiscal policy that the people believe in
- new financial year (people stop spending on the lead upto 30 June)
- further reduction in rates
- the private sector to be encouraged to commit to capital projects and start spending in a big way
- this ones hard but it would be nice if our dollar weakened.

I know this won't make anyone who's doing it tough feel better but I thought it was probably worth explaining.

[prodigyrf]

How does it go again? A recession is when you lot are underemployed/unemployed but a depression is when i'm underemployed/unemployed.

[Kalebjarrod]

It's not a problem of money, there are a lot of Aussies who have money, if fact as a nation we now have more money in our bank accounts than ever before,

Who's paid off there credit cards? We did.

Problem is we now have 24hr news on tv and on the Internet and when no kittens climb a tree the easiest way to fill the news is to talk down the economy some more, GFC, euro, stock market, Dow, Aussie dollar, inTrest rates blah blah blah

It scares people, then they don't spend, so we don't get any extra money, so we don't spend, and so it goes on

There's money just no confidence to spend it, our sales are down 33%

[Duchess]

To all you chippy's/builders out of or looking for work...

Have you thought about heading a bit further in? As in further into the country?

I mean, our town here seems to be crying out for builders and the like as you can never seem to get any of them! I've got work I want done but it seems that someone else always gets in first! I mustn't be pushy enough! (or waving enough cash under their nose...I don't know!!)

Maybe the work will dry up for them and they'll finally get back to me!

[D4D]

Agreed Duchess, I have some small rectification jobs to do but it seems the trades what the full house builds. If they do call back they want $50 to quote a job...

[Tassie devils]

To all you chippy's/builders out of or looking for work...

Have you thought about heading a bit further in? As in further into the country?

I mean, our town here seems to be crying out for builders and the like as you can never seem to get any of them! I've got work I want done but it seems that someone else always gets in first! I mustn't be pushy enough! (or waving enough cash under their nose...I don't know!!)

Maybe the work will dry up for them and they'll finally get back to me!

Hi Duchess
Do you mean relocate or travel daily, I do hear this all the time that small country towns struggle to get tradesman but where we are in central Adelaide a 2 hour drive in any direction would not get you to areas where tradesman are scarce. Mind you I have thought about the mines as a last resort,but I don't think they are crying out for carpenters.