AFL 2024

[prodigyrf]

And then there were 8 and which one will the Footy Gods smile upon?
https://www.msn.com/en-au/sport/rugby_league/game-s-changed-scott-s-big-call-on-afl-flag-race/ar-AA1pnFeF

Dan Houston must be thinking Finals games have gotta be worth more than minor round games with suspension but the AFL's message is clear that the Tony Lockett combobulation era is over and let that be a lesson to all you remaining players 

[Bird]

5th to 8th are just there for extra TV.
They should drop it back to final 5 with minor prem's getting a week off while the others fight it out... thats how NRL used to be in the 80s' worked well

[Pottsy]

Two bumps, two concussed players, two different outcomes, no wonder punters are confused.

[Hairs]

Two bumps, two concussed players, two different outcomes, no wonder punters are confused.

Yep, no consistency.
NRL the same thing.


You don't use magic to disappear, ya use a 4x4 & Swag.

[Bird]

Two bumps, two concussed players, two different outcomes, no wonder punters are confused.

pickett is always tryin to be a big man for such a little scrote...

[prodigyrf]

Speaking of out of character brainfades none better than Mark Bickley on Daryl Wakelin-
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=b4g0jeTyU1A
and Bicks clearly understood the 6 weeks including finals-
https://www.theage.com.au/sport/afl/ban-threatens-bickleys-career-20020821-gduiid.html

No doubt about that one but that makes Houston's 5 matches a bit stiff although without a sin bin like rugby and the long term AFL liability for concussion there's a clear message in it.

Here's a thought with the aforesaid in mind and finals games clearly worth more than pre-season or minor round games. Found guilty of any games in the finals and you serve them whatever they are but in the case of being found guilty like Bicks or Houston the Tribunal has the discretion of allowing the player to serve the games on 2 for 1 with a finals game. Ipso facto Houston gets his 5 games but he's served one and the next 2 finals he's deemed to have served 5 by deferring 1 of each finals games to any normal games in future (next season in this case) Note here the Tribunal may conclude that leniency for the Houston case but not for Bickley case as they see fit.

[prodigyrf]

And that's all it can take to break up a winning back line and make the difference between a winning and losing team now-
https://www.msn.com/en-au/sport/afl/port-look-to-sinn-williams-to-cover-injured-defenders/ar-AA1pybKn
Why I don't think Carlton are a threat but keep your eye on Hawthorn as a smokey

[Bird]

2024 All-Australian 2024 team

B: Nick Blakey (Sydney Swans), Jacob Weitering (Carlton), Luke Ryan (Fremantle)

HB: Dayne Zorko (Brisbane Lions), Jeremy McGovern (West Coast Eagles), Dan Houston (Port Adelaide)

C: Errol Gulden (Sydney Swans), Marcus Bontempelli (Western Bulldogs), Nick Daicos (Collingwood)

HF: Chad Warner (Sydney Swans), Jeremy Cameron (Geelong Cats), Isaac Heeney (Sydney Swans)

F: Jake Waterman (West Coast Eagles), Jesse Hogan (GWS Giants), Dylan Moore (Hawthorn)

FOLL: Max Gawn (Melbourne), Patrick Cripps (Carlton), Caleb Serong (Fremantle)

I/C: Lachie Whitfield (GWS Giants), Lachie Neale (Brisbane Lions), Adam Treloar (Western Bulldogs), Zak Butters (Port Adelaide)



Captain: Marcus Bontempelli

Vice-captain: Patrick Cripps

Field Umpire: Matt Stevic

Boundary Umpire: Michael Barlow

Goal Umpire: Matthew Dervan

[prodigyrf]

The irony won't be lost on Dan Houston but along with injured Farrell as their best kicks out of defense you can see the loss to Port. We had a similar makeshift defense for the finals last year and it quickly showed although having a ruckman this time around might help the midfield cover for them.

[prodigyrf]

So here's what the stats say your team's chances are and likely how the bookies scoop up no matter what 
https://www.foxsports.com.au/afl/afl-history-says-three-teams-are-in-2024s-premiership-window-none-of-them-made-the-top-four/news-story/6457a9359740fb2ae49e2d6698baf8f7

Following Port I was naturally interested in what the stats had to say-

Port Adelaide will make it 20 of the last 20 premiers having a top-six defence

Yep that was my take that Port's 2nd finishing position (after some Round16 calls to sack the coach) was down to a well oiled back six that managed to snag those close games and are vital in finals but now a third of it is missing including an All-Australian? A couple of rookies have some mighty big boots to fill in a hurry but you can see now how the Footy Gods have to smile for the ultimate winner this time around.

[Bird]

Gee that was close....

Bring on a close game before the next flogging..

[prodigyrf]

Yeah that's what I feared with the loss of Port's defensive structure and you could see it right from the start. Port's midfield were good enough to haul it back and even hit the front but only with Geelong missing set shots. No Houston and Farrell within the structure turning defense into attack and putting pressure on Geelong going the other way and slowly but surely they got their dander up and began to run with confidence and the uncontested possession count said it all. Losing Butters didn't help but inevitably the floodgates opened as confident running opened up holes in Port's defense.

What do you take out of it? Well that was the rebounding defensive structure that helped Port win their last 5 games in a row against the best including doing a Geelong on Sydney when they were missing some key players and structure and that's no respecter of finals. For Port to win 8 in a row and hold the cup that defense simply had to be there and now it's obviously not they're clearly out of the running. Ditto Carlton you'd reckon but the rest are in good nick with player availability.

[prodigyrf]

My take- Dogs are damned good but that 17th side in Round 7 are just relentlessly better with as good a team as any with only a questionmark over Chol's fitness from the game.
Conclusion- I wouldn't want to be a team playing them after a rest week so we'll see if a knocked up Port can make a game of it.

[Bigpickle]

Watching Isaac Heaney's efforts for Sydney yesterday afternoon brought back memories of a quote by Aussie golfer Robert Allenby when he was asked "What do you need to shoot to win the US Open?"
Allenby's succinct reply was "Tiger Woods"
Beggars the question, how do yo stop Heaney?

[prodigyrf]

One thing the pundits missed with the Heaney screamer was the GWS player he climbed over realising Heaney's predicament coming down and by luck having Heaney's hand who was grabbing for a lifesaver pulling up on it to save his fall thereby aiding Heaney to roll underneath on his shoulder rather that possibly breaking his neck. That was the double remarkable if you watch the replay 

Edit: Here it is- https://www.foxsports.com.au/afl/super-swan-defies-gravity-with-alltime-hanger-but-nonsense-rules-prevent-top-mark-title/news-story/c97bd401ddd553ae4f7e2cdaf0de9d96

[Hairs]

Heeney's one handed mark.


You don't use magic to disappear, ya use a 4x4 & Swag.

[Bird]

Swans arent the same without Papley and Heeney.. they will suffer when these 2 retire.

[prodigyrf]

Yep as I recall they weren't there when Port got on a roll last time with Farrell and Houston rebounding and that's the point. It's not just the key players missing but the system they all rely upon isn't there as they shuffle the deck. What's more if sides get on a roll nowadays the skills are so good the scoreboard takes a hammering. Look at the Blues never in the race with outs and down 60 love and if the Lions didn't have to think about the showers and next week then it could have been anything as they kept going.

Anyway here's what the bookies would be looking at now-
https://www.afl.com.au/news/1212785/the-surprising-stat-on-port-adelaides-side-despite-geelong-cats-drubbing

[prodigyrf]

They've worked it out there were two stars Jake 
https://www.foxsports.com.au/afl/teams/sydney-swans/saved-his-life-brilliant-act-in-superstar-swans-magical-mark-leaves-mum-saying-thanks/news-story/0081c8d746ba78622e5a988b71dcaf4f

[Bird]

Giants... hahahhahahaahahhaahha

[prodigyrf]

The Giants are really stiff to go out like that and it goes to show what AFL skills can do when a team gets on a roll and even the ball starts bouncing for them. Perhaps it was the sting of the GF loss last year that made the call in the end. Whatever one team will really earn it this year.

It won't be Port as Kane Cornes rightly points out we've played our best against the Footy Gods-
https://www.msn.com/en-au/sport/other/had-no-right-cornes-lauds-power-s-gutsy-win/ar-AA1qAU5B
Nobody gets to bag our team but Port supporters and we're their harshest critics.

[prodigyrf]

Well here you have it Swans fans and Mr Longmire-
https://www.msn.com/en-au/sport/other/fears-for-longmire-s-legacy-if-swans-fail-to-win-flag/ar-AA1qNAnD

Unless you win the flag after finishing top you're basically a bunch of losers despite barely a feeler gauge between half a dozen sides in the top 8 coming to that point. Never mind the draft and salary cap working a treat to try and ensure clubs only win a flag on average once every 18 years and it can be a long time between averages. Casual observers of the game might have also noticed a 6:6:6 rule nowadays whereby you don't get to stack the backlines for a centre bounce after each goal. So throw caution to the wind get on a roll or the ball bounces kindly it can be a training run at their skill level to eat up a 5 or 6 goal advantage as it's rinse repeat. But wait-

 Lloyd reflected on how fickle the chance to win premierships are, going back to his undefeated Bombers side of 2000, who were quickly overtaken a year later by the up-and-coming Brisbane, who went on to win three flags in as many years.?

You don't say and there were Brisbane missing out by a kick last year and GWS twice this year while the Pies are chasing draft picks and you never know perhaps the Footy Gods have tired of messing with Port's team at the business end of the season. Now there's only 4 and hope springs eternal but Mad Monday awaits another 2 and they won't be flying.

[Pottsy]

Sydney to strong tonight, sadly Port played their grand final last week. Onward and upward in 2025, hopefully we will learn not to just continually bomb it in to the forward fifty.

[prodigyrf]

Swans too good for Port with their foot skills tonight and slowly but surely drew away so they'll certainly be a challenge for the Cats or Lions and I can't pick that one. Good to see Port have found a ruckman at last after Lycett broke down late last year and they can build on that. Definitely missed Farrell and Houston against the Swans and now we see if Houston stays or what they get in the trade if he's homesick. Good luck to the rest but only one of you is going to hold the cup 

[Pottsy]

Swans too good for Port with their foot skills tonight and slowly but surely drew away so they'll certainly be a challenge for the Cats or Lions and I can't pick that one. Good to see Port have found a ruckman at last after Lycett broke down late last year and they can build on that. Definitely missed Farrell and Houston against the Swans and now we see if Houston stays or what they get in the trade if he's homesick. Good luck to the rest but only one of you is going to hold the cup 

Powell Pepper was a bad miss this year, looking forward to his return, another hard nut will be very handy.