The future of car ownership

[edz]

Deleted as already a post on the news thread about car computer hacking .

[stabicraft]

There are three reasons why driver-less cars will not be adopted in the short term in Australia.
1) The Macquarie bank has just purchased the contract for speed camera cars.
The Macquarie bank is a well known bunch of crooks who will do anything, anything to make money and if any investment was in danger as would be the case in driver-less cars, they would pay off the polies to stop it in  its tracks.
One must also consider the revenue from fixed speed cameras and police cars, all the revenue would be gone, can anyone imagine the lazy, incompetent and greedy government just letting this easy stream of revenue drying up?

2) The RMA is populated by technophobes and troglodytes who automatically and very quickly reject anything that may change anything that drives or rides on the road.
In RMA eyes, change is bad, just look at the primitive roads and the retrograde reduction in speed zones regardless of the fact that the cars and brakes are better. Expecting them to approve a driver-less car is like expecting a politician to hand back his perks and telling the truth, impossible.
Also the RMA is anal about knowing WHO SPEEDEDEDED, and who they can lay draconian punishments on, no driver-less car would give a stuff, this would remove the pleasure and sexual gratification they get from punishing drivers so they can no longer drive.

3) finally, People are scared of machines, RE the terminator etc etc, and with nearly half the Australian driver population approaching their 60s, they would be too frightened to have "one of them there machines" running their car.
What if it took over and became self aware, no more ignoring the GPS, it would fight back and put you on the rail tracks.
I have seen my fater in law just trying to use his mobile phone and GPS, imagine him trying to program a car to get him somewhere, he would end up in WA when he was just trying to get to the corner shop.

That my friends is why we will never see driverless cars in Australia

[tk421]

Unfortunately for the truckies I see driverless trucks as being the first.  They're talking about letting them join up into convoys, with only a few cm between them. So instead of a road train - one tug, 3/4 trailers, you just join more and more into a mesh network and the front vehicle acts as the pilot. Saves fuel via the drafting. 

The thing preventing them here is the state of our roads. They'll work well on long straight freeways like you get in U.S. Or Europe, but the rubbish that passes as roads here means it'll be a lot harder. Then there are the animals. Volvo already admit that their animal avoidance technology doesn't work in Australia because Kangaroos are too unpredictable. The software can't cope.

It's the way of the world. I was reading predictions that 40% of jobs will be automated in the next decade and a bit. And we are not talking factory jobs, these are things like Sales,insurance underwriting, library techs  and Paralegal work

http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2014/01/what-jobs-will-the-robots-take/283239/

[edz]

Not a car but these are pretty scary .. imagine herds of them weaponised and programed  to attack https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NtU9p1VYtcQ

[plusnq]

There are three reasons why driver-less cars will not be adopted in the short term in Australia.
1) The Macquarie bank has just purchased the contract for speed camera cars.
The Macquarie bank is a well known bunch of crooks who will do anything, anything to make money and if any investment was in danger as would be the case in driver-less cars, they would pay off the polies to stop it in  its tracks.
One must also consider the revenue from fixed speed cameras and police cars, all the revenue would be gone, can anyone imagine the lazy, incompetent and greedy government just letting this easy stream of revenue drying up?

Macquarie's recent investment history isn't exactly the best so I wouldn't follow them myself.....

2) The RMA is populated by technophobes and troglodytes who automatically and very quickly reject anything that may change anything that drives or rides on the road.
In RMA eyes, change is bad, just look at the primitive roads and the retrograde reduction in speed zones regardless of the fact that the cars and brakes are better. Expecting them to approve a driver-less car is like expecting a politician to hand back his perks and telling the truth, impossible.
Also the RMA is anal about knowing WHO SPEEDEDEDED, and who they can lay draconian punishments on, no driver-less car would give a stuff, this would remove the pleasure and sexual gratification they get from punishing drivers so they can no longer drive.


Without a doubt the reluctance of humans will be the issue. But there are a lot of social issues that could be solved with driverless cars. People who don't have licenses, public  transport issues, parking issues. etc etc. The State and local Governments reliance on revenue from speeding and parking fines will have to change. Insurance companies will embrace them as costs will be lower due to less accidents. Human driven cars will have much higher premiums as a result.

3) finally, People are scared of machines, RE the terminator etc etc, and with nearly half the Australian driver population approaching their 60s, they would be too frightened to have "one of them there machines" running their car.
What if it took over and became self aware, no more ignoring the GPS, it would fight back and put you on the rail tracks.
I have seen my fater in law just trying to use his mobile phone and GPS, imagine him trying to program a car to get him somewhere, he would end up in WA when he was just trying to get to the corner shop.

As per point 2, people' attitudes not the technology will be the issue. User interface issues for someone such as your father are easily overcome. Even my 93 year old Nana has learnt to use an iPhone to make FaceTime calls to family.

That my friends is why we will never see driverless cars in Australia

It is coming. Long haul freight will be first. Inner city will be next. Rural and remote areas where it makes the least economic or social sense will take a long time to be offered or adopt it.

[plusnq]

Not a car but these are pretty scary .. imagine herds of them weaponised and programed  to attack https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NtU9p1VYtcQ

Imaging a swarm of small drones programmed to fly into the path of an international airliner over major city like London or New York. That technology is here and now.

[prodigyrf]

The General takes a half billion dollar bet against those Uber shares in your super fund or personal share portfolio-
http://www.popularmechanics.com/cars/hybrid-electric/a18806/gm-lyft-investment/

[prodigyrf]

They're getting serious with the new car brains and the race is on in earnest to capture the market-
http://www.engadget.com/2016/01/04/nvidia-drive-px2/

Bear in mind the introduction will likely be staged as certain roads (highways and freeways) are increasingly designated hands free and then the driver takes over again in the busy urban areas and all the time the brain of the car is learning how to cope with the different driving conditions. This is going to have repercussions for towing as the rudimentary braking systems we have now will no doubt have to be upgraded to abs, stability control all connected to the car and its brain.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oEQcpZ4C-60

[tedota]

take a look at the mining industry. They have had 200 tonne dump trucks running around driverless for years. They are working on driverless trains now. All 10 -15 thousand tonne of it.

[Bird]

I was reading predictions that 40% of jobs will be automated in the next decade and a bit. And we are not talking factory jobs, these are things like Sales,insurance underwriting, library techs  and Paralegal work

To put it bluntly, that's just not sustainable... people have to eat and live.. no work will mean total anarchy...

[prodigyrf]

We're still a bit nervous about giving up the steering wheel and pedals-
http://www.caradvice.com.au/409737/driverless-cars-not-without-a-steering-wheel-volvo-study-finds/
although we've taken to intelligent cruise control, autos, ABS, EBD, traction control AWD. electric power steering, drive by wire, self parking and GPS guidance like ducks to water so we're getting there slowly but surely

[Basel]

Here is a scenario . Driverless car is driving along and a child runs out in front. Car has a choice to make. Hit the child and possibly kill it or swerve and hit a tree and possibly kill the person in the car. How do they program that decision into the car's software?

[tk421]

To put it bluntly, that's just not sustainable... people have to eat and live.. no work will mean total anarchy...

Banks are already using AI to perform background checks on loan applicants rather than using people.  Its only unsustainable  if the jobs that are lost aren't replaced by new jobs that didn't previously exist. The world didn't end in a fireball when Telephone operators were replaced by automated exchanges.

There will probably be a shift in jobs  - eg doctors become more about personal interactions with the AI helping them diagnose and retain patient information .  But with estimates of 28 percent of employed Australians, being involved in jobs that require driving, that's a hell of lot of jobs to replace when driverless cars become a reality.  eg you would hopefully expect to see more jobs in the creation and training of AI systems even whilst those systems are replacing other jobs. Hopefully it will change the way we work but not take away our work.

But at least we will still need people to maintain and repair the robot cars!

[Fizzie]

One I wonder about is how do they handle intersections?

When you drive up to an intersection, you look to the right, see another car coming & think "Yep, I can make that" or "Nup, too close".

How does the "robot" do it?

Does it have a laser range-finder & speed gun installed, so that it see's a car coming, zaps it & calculates: 150m away, travelling at 60kmh = too close?

Same as above - what happens when it gets it's numbers wrong & pulls out too close, doesn't see the kid on the treadly so side-swipes him & so on.

Would love to see what one does with a cloud of bulldust off a road-train though - not sure if "continuing to drive through impenetrable red murk" would be covered in the programming!

[AdrianLR]

Some stats and predictions for you to consider during your next Asian holiday:

[tk421]

One I wonder about is how do they handle intersections?

When you drive up to an intersection, you look to the right, see another car coming & think "Yep, I can make that" or "Nup, too close".

How does the "robot" do it?

Does it have a laser range-finder & speed gun installed, so that it see's a car coming, zaps it & calculates: 150m away, travelling at 60kmh = too close?

Same as above - what happens when it gets it's numbers wrong & pulls out too close, doesn't see the kid on the treadly so side-swipes him & so on.

Would love to see what one does with a cloud of bulldust off a road-train though - not sure if "continuing to drive through impenetrable red murk" would be covered in the programming!

Most of the tech is already in cars on the road today. The reality is they 'see' better and react quicker than humans can.  Ever seen the youtube of the Tesla avoiding a crash that the driver didn't even see coming?  https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9X-5fKzmy38

Google's cars use LIDAR to see 200m away. They use 8 different sensors to decide what to do. We use 1 - our eyes.  Estimates say driver error accounts  for 90% of all crashes.  How would a human react in those situations? My bet is a lot of human drivers would make errors as well.

The ability for laser and mm-wave radar to 'see' through adverse conditions (fog, smoke, dust) was demonstrated back in 2006 on a UGV (unmanned ground vehicle) at Sydney Uni.  mm-wave radar doesn't care about smoke or dust. The US army has been using it on their helicopters for desert operations. Mining companies are already using Infrared on their trucks to see through dust  What do you do in the bull dust? Can you see through it? Or do you just stop? Why wouldn't an automated car just stop?

The tech may not be all the way there yet, but it won't be long. Moore's law still holds true. 30 years ago I was loading games on my Spectrum 16k computer. To load an Xbox 360 game on to a spectrum at the same data rate would take days. The computer that controlled the moon landings could process 41.6 Instructions per Second, an iPhone 6 runs at 3.36 billion Instructions per Second or put another way: A single iPhone 6 could theoretically  guide 120 million Apollo rockets at the same time 

[tk421]

This is a pretty cool video that talks about how Google's cars see the world and react to unexpected situations (a woman in a wheel chair chasing a duck??? and a myswag favourite... cyclists running red lights)

https://www.ted.com/talks/chris_urmson_how_a_driverless_car_sees_the_road?language=en#t-15524

For me the potential for the sharing of data amongst the cars is huge, especially to reduce traffic snarls. eg First car comes to a road works, and moves over, it tells the other cars about that, so they all move over nice and early, and merge nicely as they all know what each other is doing.

[prodigyrf]

Still the odd bug to iron out but here's the money quote for the doubters-

"When Driscoll was killed in Britain in 1896, as a pedestrian struck by a car on a demonstration drive in London, there was a huge outcry about the speed and dangers of the then new technology — even though the car in question was limited to 4mph (6.4km/h)."

Bearing in mind at present we manage to kill around 12-1300 a year on our roads now before counting the wheelchairs and hospital bed nights.

http://www.carsguide.com.au/car-news/autonomous-car-tech-questioned-after-tesla-death-43371?utm_source=cg&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=theguide

[prodigyrf]

Well that didn't take them long-
http://www.msn.com/en-au/motoring/news/germany-will-require-autonomous-cars-to-have-black-boxes-report/ar-BBuxFmp?li=AA8ewQ&ocid=spartanntp

Wonder how they'll get the revenue without the traffic fines now as if we didn't know. At least we Mr Magoos can minimize the tax now.

[Cruiser 105Tvan]

This is a pretty cool video that talks about how Google's cars see the world and react to unexpected situations (a woman in a wheel chair chasing a duck??? and a myswag favourite... cyclists running red lights)

https://www.ted.com/talks/chris_urmson_how_a_driverless_car_sees_the_road?language=en#t-15524

For me the potential for the sharing of data amongst the cars is huge, especially to reduce traffic snarls. eg First car comes to a road works, and moves over, it tells the other cars about that, so they all move over nice and early, and merge nicely as they all know what each other is doing.

Drivers could do that now if they thought about it.
Most of them are too self obsessed with their own importance.
And believe they are the most important, in any line of traffic, and should always be in the front.

[tk421]

Drivers could do that now if they thought about it.
Most of them are too self obsessed with their own importance.
And believe they are the most important, in any line of traffic, and should always be in the front.

They could but unfortunately humans will always zone out, get tired, get distracted, get drunk, get stoned etc, something computers won't do.



Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[Big Damo]

The sad reality is that within the lifetime of many people reading and posting here is that driverless cars will make it onto our roads.
When they prove there safeness the government will legislate to remove all operator driven cars as they can reduce road toll to zero if only driverless cars on the road. no speeding no need to own your own car as when needed will order through an app and pay per trip.
For a lot of people this will be nirvana, cheaper to run than ownership, no service costs downtime getting it to dealer, parking problems a thing of the past, will be able to reduce width of roads in city areas.
But for the rest of us wanting to drive we will be restricted to track days where there will still probably be strict speed enforcement and huge fees to replace lost revenue form the speeding fines, talking on mobile drink driving etc that the government will miss out on.
This will happen within a life time I just hope it is not during mine

[galah]

Having recently moved to a country area, an hours drive from medical type facilities, I hope driverless cars are available before I get too feeble to drive myself.
On bitumen anyway.  I suspect it will be a long time before driverless is required off road.

[briann532]

Just adding my worthless pointless 2.2c worth for the fun of it!!!!


As you know I live in Sh17ney. Surely even the worst Microsoft software using windows 10 on a cheap chinese guaranteed to fail el cheapo android in autonomous mode with a dying battery is better than 75% of the drivers I encounter on the road daily!!!!!

 

[achjimmy]

Just adding my worthless pointless 2.2c worth for the fun of it!!!!


As you know I live in Sh17ney. Surely even the worst Microsoft software using windows 10 on a cheap chinese guaranteed to fail el cheapo android in autonomous mode with a dying battery is better than 75% of the drivers I encounter on the road daily!!!!!

 

THATS TOTAL CRAP BRIAN .................it,would be about 90%