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General => General Discussion => Topic started by: prodigyrf on August 03, 2017, 11:10:25 PM

Title: In 12 years your brand new car will be junk value
Post by: prodigyrf on August 03, 2017, 11:10:25 PM
Another record sales month for July after the highest monthly sales ever in the typical peak end fin yr runout month of June-
http://www.msn.com/en-au/motoring/news/hilux-dominates-again-in-record-july-car-sales/ar-AApkIeS (http://www.msn.com/en-au/motoring/news/hilux-dominates-again-in-record-july-car-sales/ar-AApkIeS)
which adds up to 1.18million sales for the year to date and you need to compare that with Australia's car fleet here-
http://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/abs@.nsf/mf/9309.0/ (http://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/abs@.nsf/mf/9309.0/)

So 18.8 million registered vehicles and 75% are passenger vehicles leaves 14.1 million and divide that by those annual sales leaves you with just short of 12 years to turn our car fleet over. That's why on average the new car you wheel out of the showroom today will be worthless in 12 years time for lack of buyers. (it may actually be less because that fleet turnover time has been coming down over recent years)

The oldies among us would know that new car offerings have never been better bang for buck than they are nowadays, but sometimes you look longingly at those US prices and wonder why we pay a premium here for the same cars among other things. Well that's because it's the BIG APPLE particularly for cars if you scroll down to that fourth table- 'Total Vehicle Sales by Country' to see how we don't rate at all-
https://tradingeconomics.com/australia/total-vehicle-sales (https://tradingeconomics.com/australia/total-vehicle-sales)

Not worth over-servicing them as they'll all do the average 180-200k in that time with regular servicing and the squeezers won't pay you any extra for it when you drive it there.

Title: Re: In 12 years your brand new car will be junk value
Post by: NewieCamper on August 04, 2017, 06:52:35 AM
But what is the average age of our car fleet? I though it used to be about 12 years.

Don't forget to account for all the written off cars during that period.
Title: Re: In 12 years your brand new car will be junk value
Post by: Spada on August 04, 2017, 09:01:21 AM
or the thousands that are in storage from ex-fleet sales waiting to go to auction. There are acres and acres of them near Brisbane airport, and I recon Syd/Melb would dwarf Brisbane ?
Title: Re: In 12 years your brand new car will be junk value
Post by: Mace on August 04, 2017, 09:11:16 AM
This is interesting.

https://www.budgetdirect.com.au/interactives/carprices/ (https://www.budgetdirect.com.au/interactives/carprices/)

With our salaries here, our purchasing power is the best in the world (for the cars used as examples).

So for run of the mill mass produced vehicles we do pretty well. I agree with you Prodigyrf tho, for special interest vehicles we pay thru the nose.

Everything is throw away in society now.
Title: Re: In 12 years your brand new car will be junk value
Post by: Swannie on August 04, 2017, 10:06:06 AM
I call BS if you own a landcruiser you still will get at least 75% of whatvya paid for it 😂
Title: Re: In 12 years your brand new car will be junk value
Post by: GeoffA on August 04, 2017, 12:10:31 PM
TD42T Patrols have held up very well..... ;D ;D
Title: Re: In 12 years your brand new car will be junk value
Post by: Bird on August 04, 2017, 12:50:06 PM
Quote from: GeoffA
TD42T Patrols have held up very well..... ;D ;D
Hope so
Title: Re: In 12 years your brand new car will be junk value
Post by: Paddler Ed on August 04, 2017, 12:55:33 PM
What it will do is lower the cost of the used vehicles that are disposable, but the 'good' stuff will hold it's value... much like it does already.

In the UK rust helps to reduce the age of a fleet - the amazing thing is how many Discovery 1 and 2s have rusted out in key areas for the MOT (equivalent to RWC, but a touch stricter as it includes emissions). The Japanese stuff used to rust out a lot quicker, but they've improved a fair bit over the years...
Title: Re: In 12 years your brand new car will be junk value
Post by: McGirr on August 04, 2017, 08:02:21 PM
Our cruiser is a 2000 model with only 189,000 Kim's on it. A record motor and new air con cost me
$11,000. Claimed it all back on tax back in 2014. Have spent approx $ 5000 on service since being on the road traveling from 2015.

Yes a few issues crop up but it's serves the purpose for what I need and has been a great car. Being petrol it loves to be feed but who cares. A hell of a lot cheaper than a new 200 series and it's set up for what we want.

It has a lot of bush pin stripping from exploring places but again it owes me nothing, each scratch has a story  ;D .  Probably only worth $10k on today's market but I OWN it and it's serves its purpose. Will be traveling the Kimberley for 3 months next year with it.

I never worry about what a car is worth I use it as a 4WD for what it is designed for. Not locked up in a garage and too scared to get a scratch on it.

Mark
Title: Re: In 12 years your brand new car will be junk value
Post by: speewa158 on August 05, 2017, 09:03:56 AM
TD42T Patrols have held up very well..... ;D ;D


As long as it hasn't been Flogged  ??? ??? ??? ???
Title: Re: In 12 years your brand new car will be junk value
Post by: GeoffA on August 05, 2017, 12:58:57 PM

As long as it hasn't been Flogged  ??? ??? ??? ???

That's relative....
Title: Re: In 12 years your brand new car will be junk value
Post by: speewa158 on August 05, 2017, 01:06:09 PM
My 25 year old  Concubine Harvester is up for the investment wise . At present l have refused a cash offer as it was deemed too low . l am looking to release to the right person control of such a powerful unit . When l say pulling power it has new meaning .
All offers considered                   8)                         :cheers:
Title: Re: In 12 years your brand new car will be junk value
Post by: NewieCamper on August 05, 2017, 01:06:52 PM

As long as it hasn't been Flogged  ??? ??? ??? ???
Locally they found a graveyard where there was about 15 stripped patrols. Is that what you meant by flogged?
Title: Re: In 12 years your brand new car will be junk value
Post by: NewieCamper on August 05, 2017, 01:09:10 PM
My 25 year old  Concubine Harvester is up for the investment wise . At present l have refused a cash offer as it was deemed too low . l am looking to release to the right person control of such a powerful unit . When l say pulling power it has new meaning .
All offers considered                   8)                         :cheers:
Not sure if typo! I'd imagine something that harvests concubines might need some pulling power, or maybe the pulling wouldn't be necessary if the harvest is successful.
Title: Re: In 12 years your brand new car will be junk value
Post by: speewa158 on August 05, 2017, 01:10:38 PM
l was thinking about abuse  , hard  driving , not stolen/lost for insurance purposes . No dodgy stock take so to speak  . ls there much left on the carcases  ???
Title: Re: In 12 years your brand new car will be junk value
Post by: D4D on August 05, 2017, 01:12:11 PM
I call BS if you own a landcruiser you still will get at least 75% of whatvya paid for it 😂

:cup: :cup: :cup:

That's what is tempting me to sell the Prado. Even after 9 years, she still holds her value.
Title: Re: In 12 years your brand new car will be junk value
Post by: Foo on August 05, 2017, 01:56:24 PM
Our cruiser is a 2000 model with only 189,000 Kim's on it. A record motor and new air con cost me
$11,000. Claimed it all back on tax back in 2014. Have spent approx $ 5000 on service since being on the road traveling from 2015.

Yes a few issues crop up but it's serves the purpose for what I need and has been a great car. Being petrol it loves to be feed but who cares. A hell of a lot cheaper than a new 200 series and it's set up for what we want.

It has a lot of bush pin stripping from exploring places but again it owes me nothing, each scratch has a story  ;D .  Probably only worth $10k on today's market but I OWN it and it's serves its purpose. Will be traveling the Kimberley for 3 months next year with it.

I never worry about what a car is worth I use it as a 4WD for what it is designed for. Not locked up in a garage and too scared to get a scratch on it.

Mark

This, my brother inlaw said to me when I bought my Patrol for going bush bashing. You going to get scratches on it if you do that! I looked at him and said, WTF, it's a four wheel drive, that's what they are for.  ::)

Foo
Title: Re: In 12 years your brand new car will be junk value
Post by: Hairs on August 05, 2017, 04:15:42 PM
I call BS if you own a landcruiser you still will get at least 75% of whatvya paid for it 😂
;D
Try nearly 50% even tho it is 26 years old  8)
1991 GXL 1HDT new 45K plus.
2005 purchased for 21K. 
2017 same cruiser with 430 000k's on the clock and she is still worth 24K
Have spend 3k on extras + You've got maintenance costs, no matter what every you have  ;D
Even if you factor in to mine running cost minus Diesel, it owes me 51K, which is still cheaper than buying a new buckets of bolts.

Winner Winner Chicken dinner.   :cup:
 :cheers:
Title: Re: In 12 years your brand new car will be junk value
Post by: speewa158 on August 05, 2017, 04:24:06 PM
l don't want to go back to the New rig  dealer service roundabout lts service time $$ followed by $$$ then just foe giggles  $$$$out of pocket expenses    >:D
Title: Re: In 12 years your brand new car will be junk value
Post by: Hairs on August 05, 2017, 04:36:06 PM
Didn't they give you a loan vehicle while yours was being pampered   >:D
Title: Re: In 12 years your brand new car will be junk value
Post by: speewa158 on August 05, 2017, 05:28:58 PM
Only if its a Ford , they are the units they cant sell     >:D                  :cheers: